Sell 多模型思維: 天才的32個思考策略/裴吉 eslite誠品 best price

The basic number of measles infections is up to 15, and the population (15-1)/15 (94 per cent) must be vaccinated. How many people are required to get immunization if the new crown pneumonia is to be prevented from spreading? 60 per cent of children of high-income parents remain high-income, 50 per cent of children of middle-income parents remain middle-income, 70 per cent of children of low-income parents remain low-income, How can you jump out of the rigidity of the socio-economic class? What's the sharp value?How can the sharp values be used to calculate the true contribution of members to the team? Or calculate the difference between the seats held by a political party and the substantive power of the party? The world is too complex and the data is too extensive. We can avoid falling into the cognitive trap by using the model of control complexity and logic thinking properly. Models are formal structures that use mathematics and graphs to present and help us understand the world. Familiar with the implication and application of these models, Ability to reason, explain, plan, communicate, act, predict and explore can be enhanced. However, the model has three characteristics: simplification, formulaization, and omission. So we can't rely on a single model. we have to be multi-model thinkers. Thus, we need to learn the connotation and application of 32 core models. These models are derived from the fields of mathematics, science and engineering, economics, financial investment, social behavior, etc. Including: normal distribution model, long tail distribution model, linear model, nonlinear model, Contribution and impact models, network models, three dissemination models (broadcasting, diffusion, transmission), Random walking model, path dependence model, system dynamics model, collective action model, Cooperative model, learning model, signal transmission model, and dozens of game game models. Skilled multi-model thinking will help us face the challenges of life and society, Able to reasoning, interpret, plan and communicate efficiently, And take action, and be able to further predict and explore. Features of the book: ♦ Exercise the most needs of the right now, the logic, business operations, social awareness of the three-in-one talents. ♦ The connotation and application of 32 core models are summarized and cross-cutting perspectives are developed. ♦ A situation can be resolved by multiple models, and a model can be applied to multiple situations. ♦ A slightly complex formula or theorem is provided, but it does not exceed the difficulty of primary calculus. (detailed Information) Sincerity 26 yards/2681972279007 Isbn13/9789865250379 Isbn10/9865250373 Ean/9789865250379 Size/17x23cm Level/none Language/chinese/complex Page/448 Binding/soft hardcover Peggy Scott E. Page/author American social scientists, distinguished professor brown at annaburg university of michigan, professor of complex political economics at hervitz, and external researcher at the santa fe institute.Former director of the center for complex systems studies, university of michigan. he also won the award for teaching and service at the university of wisconsin, the university of northwest kellogg school of management and the california institute of technology. Renowned for its diversity and complexity in the field of social sciences and for modeling, including multimodel thinking, four books and more than sixty academic papers have been published.Member of the american academy of humanities and science, 2011.Having directed TTC to produce a series of instructional films known as complexity, with the Coursera "model thinking" course, nearly a million people have chosen to receive a high rating of an average of 4.8 stars. Liu huairen/translator The second class of the seventh grade is gemini, bachelor of arts, bachelor of arts, master of economics, tsinghua university, and is currently studying at the master of translation (intercultural institute) of furen university.Cross-cultural heads love to study statistics, economic phenomena and social issues.《Multimodel thinking is translated into the first book. Foreword Make you a genius of 32 models -- Understanding the real world through different faces Chapter 1 Benefits of multimodel thinking -- Creating great wisdom in combination with different logical frameworks Chapter 2 Why use models? - Reasoning, interpretation, planning, communication, action, prediction, exploration Chapter 3 Theoretical basis of multimodel -- Average of multiple models, usually better than a single optimal model Chapter 4 Constructing a crowd behavior model -- Human behavior lies between zero intelligence and total reason Chapter 5 Normal distribution: bell curve -- Square root method, six standard deviation, raise strategy Chapter 6 Power law distribution: long tail curve Earthquake, forest fire and book sales... Chapter 7 Linear model: regression anal